You can learn more about the project on the Good Judgment website. It is a fascinating project whose purpose is to improve the accuracy of forecasts.

He is a co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a long-term forecasting study. Philip Tetlock is a professor at the University of Pennsylvania. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future-whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life-and is destined to become a modern classic. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people-including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer-who set out to forecast global events. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament.

What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals.

Superforecasting by philip e tetlock